Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1600 HAMP +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -15.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -10.2 (+2.8) | 137.4 (+7.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -13.6 (-0.6) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.8 (+2.2) | 137.9 (+7.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -10.8 (+2.2) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 10-4 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#179) | -8.3 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#217) | -0.85 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#227) | -1.22 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#349) | 0.425 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.3% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 21.2% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.5% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 84.1% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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