Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -138 UTM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -12.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.2 (-1.2) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -9.1 (-3.1) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.1 (-2.1) | 137.1 (-3.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.9 (-1.9) | 136.2 (-2.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#164) | -4.4 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#243) | -0.78 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#232) | -1.64 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#263) | 0.526 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 23.3% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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