Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -400 ECU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +11 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -2.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.3 (-10.7) | 156.5 (+4.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.7 (-11.7) | 156.9 (+4.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -0.4 (-11.4) | 155.4 (+5.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.1 (-12.1) | 156.1 (+4.9) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 10-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#172) | -1.7 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#161) | 0.09 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#171) | 0.13 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#140) | 0.450 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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