Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -7.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.0 (+0.0) | 155.1 (-5.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -7.1 (+1.1) | 153.6 (-3.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -6.4 (+0.4) | 153.7 (-3.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -6.5 (+0.5) | 152.7 (-2.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#198) | 6.8 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#266) | 1.61 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#223) | 3.07 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#172) | 0.553 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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