Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -110 TXST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -3.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -0.9 (-4.9) | 130.5 (-16.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -0.4 (-4.4) | 128.9 (-14.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.8 (-5.8) | 133.2 (-19.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -2.8 (-6.8) | 133.2 (-19.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 3-14 | 4-10 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#299) | -2.9 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#353) | -0.25 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.28 (#349) | -0.70 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.297 (#345) | 0.315 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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