Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -120 UNI +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -7.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.3 (-3.3) | 126.8 (+9.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.4 (-3.4) | 125.4 (+10.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -4.7 (-2.7) | 128.7 (+7.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.9 (-3.9) | 129.7 (+6.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#97) | -2.8 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#111) | -1.48 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#87) | -1.94 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#41) | 0.384 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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