Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WKU -333 ILST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -0.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -1.2 (+10.8) | 128.9 (+15.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -1.4 (+10.6) | 128.3 (+15.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -0.2 (+11.8) | 129.7 (+14.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.1 (+12.1) | 130.5 (+13.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#243) | -4.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#74) | -0.69 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#92) | -1.61 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#97) | 0.407 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 15.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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