Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +2500 TEX -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +25 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -13.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -11.2 (-13.8) | 135.7 (-14.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -15.7 (-9.3) | 133.7 (-12.7) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -10.8 (-14.2) | 136.5 (-15.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -10.9 (-14.1) | 137.4 (-16.4) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#165) | 14.6 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#233) | 1.93 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#211) | 3.13 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.760 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 28.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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