Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +8 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -15.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -12.1 (-4.1) | 160.6 (+33.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -11.4 (-3.4) | 160.3 (+33.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -13.5 (-5.5) | 159.2 (+34.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -9.8 (-1.8) | 157.4 (+36.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | ARIZ 77 – 51 CIN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ARIZ 72 – 67 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#14) | -0.8 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#88) | 0.31 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#95) | 0.03 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#123) | 0.501 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 63.2% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 46.7% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 71.8% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 50.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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