Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | KC +320 INST -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | INST -6.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.6 (+7.6) | 149.3 (-25.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.3 (+5.3) | 145.0 (-21.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.7 (+6.7) | 143.6 (-19.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.1 (+6.1) | 144.7 (-20.7) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#177) | 6.1 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#105) | 2.06 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#94) | 2.84 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#42) | 0.657 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 25.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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