Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -1000 BRAD +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -1.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.1 (+22.1) | 136.4 (+12.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.1 (+18.9) | 134.1 (+14.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.1 (+22.1) | 134.0 (+15.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -0.3 (+21.3) | 135.0 (+14.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#113) | 4.6 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#96) | 1.41 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#109) | 2.32 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#152) | 0.626 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 44.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 46.0% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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