Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +260 DRKE -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -7.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -3.7 (-10.7) | 140.2 (-5.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -1.7 (-8.7) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -4.0 (-11.0) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.5 (-10.5) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#40) | 2.2 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#66) | 1.64 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#61) | 1.88 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#31) | 0.585 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 47.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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