Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ND -1600 BGSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ND -14.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -12.7 (+3.3) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -13.6 (+2.4) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -11.1 (+4.9) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -12.0 (+4.0) | 147.6 (+0.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#148) | -5.5 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#40) | -0.59 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#49) | -1.31 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.704 (#20) | 0.432 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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