Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | UTA +230 NKU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +4 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -5.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -3.3 (+7.3) | 123.8 (-7.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -4.1 (+8.1) | 123.0 (-7.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -4.5 (+8.5) | 124.4 (-8.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -4.5 (+8.5) | 124.6 (-8.6) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#334) | -4.1 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#329) | -0.06 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#323) | 0.11 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#246) | 0.694 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 26.4% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 18.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.40 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 29.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 9.6% |
Game Analysis
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