Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LIU +900 SDAK -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -8.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -8.1 (-1.9) | 143.5 (-17.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -5.7 (-4.3) | 139.0 (-13.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -5.7 (-4.3) | 143.7 (-17.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -5.8 (-4.2) | 145.8 (-19.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-26 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 2-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-14 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#358) | -7.2 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#236) | 0.49 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#236) | 0.88 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#197) | 0.629 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 25.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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