Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -175 FGCU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +21 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -5.1 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -3.6 (-17.4) | 130.1 (+12.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -4.3 (-16.7) | 128.7 (+14.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -2.7 (-18.3) | 130.9 (+12.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -3.4 (-17.6) | 132.8 (+10.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#250) | 1.1 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#186) | 0.50 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#177) | 0.71 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#23) | 0.556 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.6% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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