Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -8000 OMA +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +36 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -32.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -29.4 (+6.6) | 159.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -26.6 (+9.4) | 156.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -24.3 (+11.7) | 157.6 (+6.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -29.6 (+6.4) | 157.3 (+6.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#3) | -7.0 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#18) | -1.78 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.90 (#13) | -2.75 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#75) | 0.366 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.61 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 10.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.0% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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