Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WRST +120 ACU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -1.3 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.1 (+16.1) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.6 (+17.6) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.4 (+16.4) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -0.1 (+15.9) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#275) | -4.2 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#205) | -0.60 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#218) | -0.99 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#177) | 0.316 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 28.1% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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