Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP +110 UNA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -5.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -3.0 (+2.0) | 150.0 (-1.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -4.6 (+3.6) | 148.9 (+0.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -4.4 (+3.4) | 148.0 (+1.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -3.8 (+2.8) | 149.6 (-0.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#317) | -2.9 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#253) | -0.43 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#245) | -1.06 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#256) | 0.326 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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