Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +400 SHSU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +34 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -14.2 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.6 (+29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -11.3 (-22.7) | 126.4 (+15.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -14.0 (-20.0) | 127.0 (+15.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -9.9 (-24.1) | 124.6 (+17.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -11.4 (-22.6) | 126.1 (+15.9) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#226) | 11.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#219) | 3.96 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#217) | 5.88 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#195) | 0.856 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 29.7% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 33.1% | 40.1% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 12.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 27.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 84.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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