Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK +110 APSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -2.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -1.3 (+12.7) | 127.7 (+16.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -1.4 (+12.6) | 128.1 (+15.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -2.0 (+12.0) | 130.7 (+13.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -2.4 (+11.6) | 133.3 (+10.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#190) | -3.8 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#151) | 0.47 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#153) | 0.34 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#211) | 0.553 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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