See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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70–26 on winners spread MAE 8.3 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Lafayette @ Holy Cross -1.8 138.7 44% 74–79 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +14.3 143.7 87% 55–73 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania +0.6 156.2 57% 65–79 ✓
Columbia @ Princeton +16.9 155.3 90% 69–84 ✓
Brown @ Harvard +2.2 143.5 55% 84–73 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +6.0 138.2 76% 60–85 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +8.2 140.9 79% 71–61 ✗
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris -5.1 149.8 30% 78–77 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield +2.1 138.5 57% 60–51 ✗
Xavier @ Butler -10.3 132.4 16% 87–72 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +1.9 149.8 50% 75–84 ✓
Purdue @ Penn State -5.3 142.3 27% 74–67 ✓
Wichita State @ Houston +15.7 136.2 88% 66–76 ✓
St. John's @ Providence +6.7 148.0 76% 73–83 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall +2.0 143.4 65% 87–90 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +1.8 137.2 56% 50–60 ✓
Clemson @ NC State -2.9 153.3 38% 70–65 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +9.1 130.6 82% 62–64 ✓
Duquesne @ Massachusetts +4.6 152.5 68% 78–74 ✗
Dayton @ George Washington -6.4 134.2 25% 83–58 ✓
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt +5.9 135.9 71% 72–70 ✗
California Baptist @ Chicago State -10.6 139.4 21% 56–58 ✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -1.0 132.8 39% 66–57 ✓
Virginia @ North Carolina +5.7 136.6 75% 58–74 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -6.9 148.3 22% 71–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ VMI +4.5 135.2 67% 72–56 ✗
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +4.7 150.3 74% 81–86 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma State -3.5 129.4 36% 51–64 ✗
Villanova @ DePaul -6.1 135.7 28% 79–64 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +4.6 139.1 69% 75–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +6.1 147.2 74% 70–75 ✓
Hampton @ Gardner-Webb +15.2 131.8 86% 69–78 ✓
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +6.9 158.4 79% 74–77 ✓
Maine @ Stony Brook +14.9 141.4 90% 72–80 ✓
Kansas State @ West Virginia +6.1 130.7 76% 68–71 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +16.9 131.8 89% 58–72 ✓
Rhode Island @ Davidson +6.7 139.9 81% 68–72 ✓
VCU @ La Salle -8.2 132.2 18% 85–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +18.5 134.6 89% 63–94 ✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers +7.8 147.9 81% 65–93 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State -6.3 154.2 25% 80–79 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +8.0 144.8 77% 71–84 ✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +0.8 150.4 49% 90–83 ✗
UT Arlington @ Georgia Southern +3.0 131.6 64% 73–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois -0.8 158.1 44% 87–86 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +5.4 154.9 75% 60–85 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri -11.3 149.1 17% 86–92 ✗
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan +5.0 153.1 68% 78–72 ✗
Kansas @ Texas Tech +0.5 142.4 60% 67–75 ✓
Colorado State @ San Diego State +2.3 134.9 68% 49–79 ✓
South Florida @ Tulane +6.6 134.0 77% 54–68 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State -0.5 149.0 55% 74–65 ✓
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State +2.1 151.5 57% 72–67 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +2.4 130.1 57% 55–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State +2.6 158.1 69% 84–95 ✓
Murray State @ SIU Edwardsville -10.1 143.3 17% 74–69 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman +2.8 135.3 55% 68–66 ✗
Southern @ Florida A&M -5.0 134.2 29% 80–66 ✓
UAB @ Rice -5.6 150.3 25% 80–85 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA -12.0 142.8 14% 79–63 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +10.6 145.3 85% 85–71 ✗
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +17.0 144.9 89% 71–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ St. Francis Brooklyn +1.9 131.5 59% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +7.1 136.4 66% 82–72 ✗
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +0.3 130.9 53% 67–69 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +2.2 137.0 60% 67–56 ✗
Bradley @ Loyola Chicago +13.4 142.8 86% 71–78 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +9.6 146.2 86% 74–93 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +9.8 145.0 82% 66–81 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State -0.6 142.3 50% 68–57 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +17.3 149.6 88% 67–85 ✓
Belmont @ UT Martin -11.2 151.0 16% 81–55 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Radford +2.9 135.2 59% 73–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +15.7 146.1 90% 59–82 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -6.6 143.4 18% 76–64 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -9.4 136.4 19% 60–59 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +0.6 157.1 55% 83–87 ✓
Morehead State @ Austin Peay -6.5 141.6 30% 66–55 ✓
App State @ Troy +3.7 131.1 73% 53–68 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +0.8 137.8 49% 68–66 ✗
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M -1.4 131.1 43% 78–71 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State -1.9 133.4 48% 57–72 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +10.4 160.8 76% 84–82 ✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +0.8 144.3 55% 66–64 ✗
Iowa State @ Oklahoma +2.6 130.9 74% 66–79 ✓
Georgia @ Kentucky +22.0 152.0 91% 77–92 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU +7.2 133.2 75% 67–79 ✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.5 149.2 71% 54–67 ✓
Washington State @ Utah -0.6 139.9 49% 77–61 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas +9.1 129.0 80% 63–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech -0.2 136.0 46% 72–68 ✓
Cornell @ Princeton +6.5 159.6 75% 70–72 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +12.4 149.8 85% 73–69 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +4.4 133.8 60% 66–69 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State +5.8 144.4 71% 85–84 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +10.7 155.8 86% 93–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.