Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | HC +145 LAF -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -1.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.5 (+7.5) | 137.0 (+16.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.8 (+7.8) | 136.2 (+16.8) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.8 (+6.8) | 138.7 (+14.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.0 (+7.0) | 137.0 (+16.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#346) | -9.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.07 (#353) | -1.84 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.42 (#353) | -2.83 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.327 (#354) | 0.436 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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