Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.9 (-1.1) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.5 (-1.5) | 142.6 (-1.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.3 (-1.7) | 142.3 (-1.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.5 (-0.5) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#93) | 17.6 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#63) | 2.68 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#71) | 3.95 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#39) | 0.612 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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