Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -5.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -2.6 (-1.6) | 131.4 (+15.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -3.1 (-2.1) | 132.1 (+14.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -3.0 (-2.0) | 131.6 (+15.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -3.0 (-2.0) | 131.4 (+15.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#215) | -3.6 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#208) | 0.20 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#223) | 0.21 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#226) | 0.520 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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