Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -11.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -9.5 (+5.5) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -9.9 (+5.1) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -9.8 (+5.2) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -9.7 (+5.3) | 145.4 (+1.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#100) | -2.8 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#94) | 0.04 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#106) | -0.16 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#82) | 0.497 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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