I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–12 on winners spread MAE 7.4 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Marshall +3.1 149.9 58% 90–77 ✗
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian +12.8 140.8 84% 65–63 ✗
San Diego @ San Francisco +12.5 132.4 86% 73–88 ✓
Brown @ Dartmouth -0.1 138.9 52% 46–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine +1.5 150.1 62% 61–66 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +0.4 133.4 46% 63–60 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +16.2 155.4 87% 65–84 ✓
Miami @ Duke +14.5 157.0 85% 76–74 ✗
UCLA @ California -5.4 139.0 35% 60–52 ✓
Florida @ Auburn +12.1 141.4 85% 73–85 ✓
Iona @ Saint Louis +3.7 149.0 66% 67–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside +0.3 124.9 47% 68–51 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Davis +2.1 137.3 62% 71–78 ✓
New Mexico State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.3 150.0 23% 85–73 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State +1.7 132.0 57% 71–77 ✓
Louisville @ Florida State +2.8 142.7 65% 70–79 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -3.8 154.2 34% 90–87 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +9.7 152.5 80% 77–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern +15.5 136.0 88% 71–90 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss -2.0 133.8 40% 72–82 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +27.6 156.7 91% 83–117 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTEP +9.3 132.1 82% 54–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama -3.7 133.2 38% 65–55 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU +5.9 132.6 75% 43–52 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +6.9 135.9 78% 60–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris -0.2 144.5 48% 76–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Niagara +3.5 135.6 62% 66–76 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +0.6 143.9 51% 86–80 ✗
Rider @ Marist +11.4 134.8 85% 79–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Siena -5.4 134.1 31% 62–69 ✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -3.1 157.3 41% 88–93 ✗
Cincinnati @ Memphis +5.4 140.2 72% 80–87 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland +17.4 139.7 88% 65–86 ✓
Hofstra @ James Madison -0.3 146.6 49% 87–80 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +10.2 152.4 85% 61–65 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +12.2 137.3 85% 67–70 ✓
Washington @ Colorado +6.8 140.2 78% 64–78 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +6.8 144.1 79% 87–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.