Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +19 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -18.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -14.4 (+4.6) | 135.0 (+26.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -13.3 (+5.7) | 136.0 (+25.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -15.5 (+3.5) | 136.0 (+25.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -13.9 (+5.1) | 135.9 (+25.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXSO 83 – 64 UAPB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UAPB 74 – 66 TXSO |
| Feb 25, 2025 | TXSO 81 – 56 UAPB |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAPB 69 – 68 TXSO |
| Feb 27, 2024 | TXSO 77 – 70 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-10 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#174) | -15.2 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#192) | -2.72 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#180) | -3.96 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#141) | 0.431 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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