Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -3.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.3 (+12.3) | 130.2 (+23.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.2 (+12.2) | 131.7 (+22.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.0 (+12.0) | 133.8 (+20.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.6 (+12.6) | 132.5 (+21.5) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#119) | 10.5 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#148) | 1.70 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#131) | 2.17 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#198) | 0.578 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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