Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -18.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -13.2 (+5.8) | 152.3 (-3.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -15.2 (+3.8) | 155.8 (-6.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -16.2 (+2.8) | 155.4 (-6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -15.1 (+3.9) | 154.7 (-5.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#86) | -7.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#76) | -0.66 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#100) | -0.94 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#61) | 0.429 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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