Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -12.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.7 (+3.3) | 141.0 (+17.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.0 (-0.0) | 141.8 (+16.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.1 (-0.1) | 141.4 (+16.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -11.1 (+0.9) | 142.8 (+15.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#6) | 10.7 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#5) | 1.11 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#3) | 1.61 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#2) | 0.542 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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