Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | UCD -197 UCSD +172 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -5.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -3.0 (+4.0) | 136.3 (+12.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -2.4 (+4.6) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.1 (+4.9) | 137.3 (+11.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -1.5 (+5.5) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSD 68 – 51 UCD |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 74 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 60 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#184) | -1.8 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#169) | -0.14 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#179) | 0.11 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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