Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | CARK +190 LIP -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +5 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -4.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -3.8 (+8.8) | 157.7 (+23.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -3.1 (+8.1) | 156.8 (+24.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -3.1 (+8.1) | 157.3 (+23.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -2.1 (+7.1) | 156.6 (+24.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | CARK 86 – 78 LIP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | LIP 84 – 66 CARK |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LIP 78 – 60 CARK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIP 68 – 55 CARK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LIP 85 – 68 CARK |
Game Analysis
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