Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -18.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -14.6 (-16.6) | 153.1 (-3.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -15.9 (-17.9) | 159.1 (-9.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -14.5 (-16.5) | 157.0 (-7.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -15.5 (-17.5) | 155.7 (-5.7) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#8) | 3.8 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#10) | 1.82 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.58 (#8) | 2.01 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#28) | 0.586 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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