Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +3 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -4.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.5 (+2.5) | 152.8 (+24.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -4.5 (+1.5) | 155.0 (+22.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.8 (+0.8) | 154.2 (+22.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -4.8 (+1.8) | 154.7 (+22.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | 8.4 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#181) | 1.34 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#183) | 2.15 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#165) | 0.569 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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