Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +17 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -0.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -1.0 (-18.0) | 125.9 (-6.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.9 (-17.9) | 123.4 (-4.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.3 (-17.3) | 124.9 (-5.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.6 (-17.6) | 125.6 (-6.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCI 80 – 66 UCR |
| Dec 5, 2025 | UCI 73 – 60 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCR 84 – 80 UCI |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCI 81 – 57 UCR |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UCR 88 – 78 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 61.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#131) | 5.8 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#102) | 0.79 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#111) | 0.82 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#93) | 0.588 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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