Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | VAL -120 SIU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -1.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.6 (-3.6) | 130.0 (-7.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.7 (-3.7) | 131.9 (-8.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -0.4 (-3.4) | 133.4 (-10.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.4 (-3.4) | 131.0 (-8.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 61.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#204) | 0.8 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#221) | -0.13 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | -0.35 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#248) | 0.478 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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