Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Atlantic 10 Conference · Mullins Center · January 8, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MASS -4.0 Away covered
O/U 147.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total MASS win
Actual DUQ +4 152 Lost
Massey MASS -6.8 (-10.8)
Massey Totals 159.5 (-7.5)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Plus ML MASS -5.2 (-9.2) 151.9 (+0.1) 71%
Efficiency Plus ML MASS -5.1 (-9.1) 151.3 (+0.7) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML MASS -4.6 (-8.6) 153.6 (-1.6) 71%
Baseline ML MASS -4.6 (-8.6) 152.5 (-0.5) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2025 MASS 6253 DUQ
Jan 4, 2024 MASS 8061 DUQ
Mar 2, 2023 DUQ 8879 MASS
Jan 28, 2023 MASS 8779 DUQ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MASS DUQ
Overall 15-17 6-24
Conference 7-11 1-16
Home 10-5 3-11
Away 3-8 1-10
Neutral 2-4 2-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L17
Avg Pts For 75.7 65.2
Avg Pts Against 78.1 73.4
Massey 0.0 (#167) -2.8 (#227)
Bradley-Terry 0.06 (#171) -0.88 (#251)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#165) -0.80 (#229)
RPI 0.516 (#138) 0.444 (#272)
Shooting & Four Factors MASS DUQ
FG% 45.7% 41.5%
3PT% 40.8% 33.5%
REB / G 31.9 36.5
OREB / G 9.7 13.0
AST / TO 1.26 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.9% 47.2%
TOV% 16.0% 16.3%
ORB% 28.1% 33.1%
FT Rate 25.1% 18.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.1% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 19.3%
DRB% 69.0% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.0% 16.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.