Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -12.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -8.2 (+10.8) | 145.2 (+21.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -10.1 (+8.9) | 147.1 (+19.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -9.6 (+9.4) | 146.2 (+20.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -9.1 (+9.9) | 145.5 (+21.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Away | 4-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#283) | -15.6 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#294) | -2.26 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#300) | -3.58 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#314) | 0.371 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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