I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Summit League · Western Hall · January 8, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ORU -2.0 Home covered
O/U 159.5 Over
Money WIU +110 / ORU -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total WIU win
Actual ORU +1 173 Lost
Massey ORU -0.1 (-0.9) — —
Massey Totals — 155.9 (+17.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 62% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 44% ✓
Baseline Plus ML ORU -0.1 (-0.9) 157.0 (+16.0) 47% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ORU -0.9 (-0.1) 159.7 (+13.3) 44% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML WIU -0.4 (-1.4) 156.2 (+16.8) 52% ✗
Baseline ML ORU -0.8 (-0.2) 158.1 (+14.9) 44% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 11, 2023 ORU 82 – 73 WIU
Jan 13, 2023 ORU 87 – 63 WIU
Mar 7, 2022 ORU 80 – 68 WIU
Feb 4, 2022 WIU 90 – 85 ORU
Feb 28, 2021 ORU 95 – 59 WIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WIU ORU
Overall 16-16 19-12
Conference 7-11 12-6
Home 9-6 10-5
Away 7-9 8-6
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 81.5
Avg Pts Against 77.7 77.8
Massey -0.2 (#171) 3.9 (#111)
Bradley-Terry -0.06 (#183) 0.15 (#165)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.45 (#210) 0.56 (#137)
RPI 0.481 (#212) 0.514 (#142)
Shooting & Four Factors WIU ORU
FG% 42.3% 44.5%
3PT% 34.6% 37.8%
REB / G 37.8 38.7
OREB / G 12.6 9.6
AST / TO 0.94 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 54.0%
TOV% 16.2% 15.9%
ORB% 31.4% 25.9%
FT Rate 20.6% 14.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 14.9%
DRB% 74.0% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 27.5% 16.2%

Game Analysis

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