Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Summit League · Mabee Center · February 4, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ORU -7.0 Away covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money ORU -320 / WIU +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORU win
Actual WIU +5 175 Lost
Massey ORU -7.5 (-12.5) — —
Massey Totals — 161.2 (+13.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 81% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 90% ✗
Baseline Plus ML ORU -7.6 (-12.6) 161.5 (+13.5) 76% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ORU -9.2 (-14.2) 162.0 (+13.0) 81% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ORU -6.5 (-11.5) 158.0 (+17.0) 77% ✗
Baseline ML ORU -6.6 (-11.6) 159.1 (+15.9) 77% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 11, 2023 ORU 82 – 73 WIU
Jan 13, 2023 ORU 87 – 63 WIU
Mar 7, 2022 ORU 80 – 68 WIU
Jan 8, 2022 ORU 87 – 86 WIU
Feb 28, 2021 ORU 95 – 59 WIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORU WIU
Overall 19-12 16-16
Conference 12-6 7-11
Home 10-5 9-6
Away 8-6 7-9
Neutral 1-1 0-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 81.5 76.8
Avg Pts Against 77.8 77.7
Massey 2.7 (#126) -1.5 (#202)
Bradley-Terry 0.39 (#136) -0.51 (#214)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.85 (#122) -0.69 (#219)
RPI 0.525 (#130) 0.463 (#238)
Shooting & Four Factors ORU WIU
FG% 45.6% 43.2%
3PT% 38.6% 33.1%
REB / G 38.8 37.8
OREB / G 9.5 11.8
AST / TO 1.11 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 50.0%
TOV% 14.8% 15.8%
ORB% 25.8% 29.8%
FT Rate 15.0% 20.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.9% 51.5%
Opp TOV% 13.4% 18.5%
DRB% 74.8% 76.2%
Opp FT Rate 17.9% 25.4%

Game Analysis

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