Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | UNC -220 UVA +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -7.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -6.2 (+9.8) | 134.8 (-2.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -5.8 (+10.2) | 135.9 (-3.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -5.7 (+10.3) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.4 (+10.6) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#40) | 6.6 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#61) | 1.18 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#54) | 1.81 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#40) | 0.536 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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