Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -19.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -15.9 (+2.1) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -15.7 (+2.3) | 150.0 (+2.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -17.3 (+0.7) | 149.6 (+2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -17.4 (+0.6) | 149.6 (+2.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CIT 88 – 85 UTC |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTC 93 – 72 CIT |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CIT 78 – 71 UTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UTC 76 – 75 CIT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTC 81 – 68 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 12-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | -3.7 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#38) | -0.99 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#42) | -1.46 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#22) | 0.453 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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