Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +220 XAV -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +15 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -10.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -9.0 (-6.0) | 132.7 (+26.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.8 (-5.2) | 131.6 (+27.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -10.3 (-4.7) | 132.4 (+26.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -9.6 (-5.4) | 130.8 (+28.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#177) | 14.5 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#65) | 3.07 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#67) | 4.14 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#115) | 0.647 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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