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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–12 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.9 | 141.2 | 69% | 51–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 132.7 | 45% | 88–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 147.5 | 62% | 94–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.0 | 143.1 | 88% | 81–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 141.7 | 53% | 53–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 141.8 | 73% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 133.3 | 74% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 144.0 | 67% | 72–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 143.4 | 52% | 70–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 138.3 | 62% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 146.5 | 87% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.1 | 155.7 | 91% | 78–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 152.8 | 77% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.3 | 137.4 | 22% | 93–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 137.2 | 57% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 128.7 | 44% | 69–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 152.7 | 52% | 61–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 142.7 | 26% | 84–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 130.7 | 75% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 141.1 | 84% | 64–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 139.2 | 62% | 77–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 137.6 | 81% | 72–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 158.0 | 42% | 81–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 153.5 | 58% | 82–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.0 | 147.7 | 14% | 87–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.5 | 160.1 | 91% | 62–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 152.4 | 65% | 78–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 137.9 | 46% | 78–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.0 | 148.1 | 19% | 92–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 141.1 | 68% | 90–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.5 | 138.8 | 90% | 51–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 140.2 | 63% | 60–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 146.9 | 84% | 74–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 133.2 | 74% | 51–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 142.7 | 43% | 64–52 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 131.5 | 31% | 77–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 143.4 | 74% | 65–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 144.4 | 53% | 83–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 136.9 | 71% | 66–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 148.8 | 70% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 148.6 | 57% | 83–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 156.2 | 34% | 92–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 132.6 | 82% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.