Incarnate Word
Cardinals
80
–
83
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Southland Conference Men's Basketball Tip-Off
Northwestern State
Demons
Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +160 NWST -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -0.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -0.4 (-2.6) | 142.9 (+20.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.4 (-3.4) | 143.6 (+19.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.4 (-3.4) | 144.4 (+18.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -0.2 (-3.2) | 143.9 (+19.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NWST 54 – 49 UIW |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UIW 76 – 74 NWST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NWST 73 – 57 UIW |
| Dec 6, 2024 | NWST 72 – 70 UIW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NWST 81 – 61 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 5-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 6-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#341) | -14.4 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#341) | -2.81 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.51 (#337) | -3.78 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#281) | 0.475 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 27.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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