Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -125 UIW +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +5 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -1.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-42.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -1.0 (+4.0) | 138.8 (-35.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -0.0 (+5.0) | 138.9 (-35.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -1.6 (+3.4) | 137.8 (-34.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -1.3 (+3.7) | 139.3 (-36.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UIW 76 – 74 NWST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NWST 73 – 57 UIW |
| Dec 6, 2024 | NWST 72 – 70 UIW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NWST 81 – 61 UIW |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NWST 97 – 71 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 7-15 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#273) | -5.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#313) | -1.46 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#313) | -1.90 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#323) | 0.434 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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