Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +190 USC -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -5.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.4 (-8.6) | 132.0 (+8.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -3.4 (-10.6) | 131.6 (+8.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -3.4 (-10.6) | 131.5 (+8.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -3.2 (-10.8) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#112) | 13.9 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#134) | 4.05 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#121) | 5.28 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#157) | 0.650 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 40.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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