Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | UCR -265 UCSD +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +8 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -8.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.5 (+0.5) | 129.2 (-19.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.1 (+2.9) | 131.5 (-21.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.9 (+2.1) | 133.2 (-23.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -4.1 (+3.9) | 131.4 (-21.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 0-0 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#126) | -2.1 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#92) | -0.17 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#115) | 0.05 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.497 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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