Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -360 UTA +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -4.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -3.7 (-10.7) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.9 (-7.9) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.8 (-7.8) | 143.4 (-10.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.4 (-9.4) | 143.7 (-10.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#243) | -4.3 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#211) | 0.07 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#208) | 0.06 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#177) | 0.511 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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